人口年龄结构转变的储蓄效应

The Saving Effects of Transition of Demographic Age Structure:An Analysis Originating From Data of Chinese Province

在一波"婴儿潮"发生后,社会中人口年龄结构将渐次呈"金字塔形"、"橄榄形"和"倒金字塔形"分布,人口抚育比也随即发生改变,并进一步传递到国民储蓄上。实证显示了人口抚育比与国民储蓄率间的负相关关系。然而,在单独对中部地区的研究中却发现,两者是一种正相关关系。对此,本文认为劳动力供给可能不是外生的,当个体发现其家庭抚育负担较重时,他们可能会减少闲暇、增加劳动供给以提高收入和储蓄。

The paper explains the reason of high saving fixan the transition of Demographic age structure, we make use of the data of 31 regions from 2002 to 2007 to conduct a Cross - sectional Time - series FGLS regression, proves that there is a inverse relation between and the rate of aggregate saving. However, we find that there is positive relation between dependency rate and the rate of aggregate saving, which is likely to orignate from the endogenous labor force supplies.