中国出生性别比水平与数据质量研究

Study on the Level and Data Quality of Sex Ratio at Birth of China

通过对多套数据的分析和比较,对我国出生性别比究竟有多高、目前我国人口出生性别比的数据是否可靠、出生性别比数据存在的问题以及导致这些问题的原因等一系列问题进行分析。研究发现,普查数据中0岁人口组性别比明显偏低,该年龄组的数据质量不可靠,判断我国出生性别比水平的态势应以其他低年龄组性别比的数据为主。普查数据中低年龄组又存在一定程度的女(婴)孩漏报的现象,导致低年龄组性别比一定程度的虚假性升高,影响了对我国真实出生性别比水平的判断。但是,即使扣除了这个因素,各个年龄组的性别比依旧远远高于正常值。所以,中国人口的出生性别比水平偏高的情况是真实的,只是真实的出生性别比水平并没有普查数据所显示的那么高。

This paper checks whether the data of sex ratio at birth in China is reliable, finds out the problems in the data and analyzes the causes of the problems through the comparison among several different sets of data. Results show that the sex ratio of age 0 group is obviously low and the census data of this age group is not so reliable. The judgment of the level of SRB should be made on the base of other younger age group data. But the sex ratios of these younger age groups are overestimated in some degree because of the under - reporting girls in each age group in the census. However, even after the effect of overestimate is deducted, the sex ratios of different age groups are still much higher than the normal. In brief, the situation of high level of SRB in China is true, but the actual SRB is not as high as those reported in the census.