原油管输能耗预测方法研究

Study on Prediction Method of Energy Consumption in Crude Oil Pipelines

为了加强对管输成本的控制,针对受复杂多变的输油能耗变化因素影响,企业难以合理地确定管输能耗指标这一问题,结合生产实践,将季节性因素引入模型,对能耗进行了量化分析,消除了由季节性差异干扰带来的误差。探讨了在有限的数据环境下实现管输能耗预测的有效途径,反映了原油管道输送过程能耗的变化关系,其预测结果可以作为制订管输能耗指标和成本预测的依据。

As one of the most important component of pipeline transportation cost,energy consumption cost is impacted by a number of factors which are constantly changing.Therefore,it is difficult for the enterprise to set energy consumption index more reasonably.The paper,comhined with actual production,through introducing seasonal factors into a model to achieve quantitative analysis of energy consumption,overcomes error results from the interference of seasonal variations.And effective approaches to realize piping energy cost prediction under limited data circumstances are discussed and energy consumption changes in the process of crude oil pipeline transportation are further reflected.The predicting results can be used as a basis for setting energy consumption index and cost prediction.