城市日用水量预测的部分线性自回归模型

Partially linear AR model of urban daily water demand

根据城市用水量影响因素及特点,针对线性回归模型与线性自回归模型误差较大的缺点,建立了城市日用水量的部分线性自回归预测模型,其中线性部分考虑日用水量,非线性部分考虑当天的最高温度,该模型综合了非参数回归模型与线性自回归模型的优点,因此在拟合与预测精度上比线性回归与线性自回归模型有所提高,证明该方法在城市日用水量预测中是有效的。

According to the affecting factor and the character of urban daily water demand, the partially linear AR model of urban daily water demand is set up. The linear aspect takes into account the water demand and the nonlinear aspect takes into account tiptop temperature. This model not only has the merit of regressive model but also has the autoregressive model merit. Compared with the former three models, the simulation and forecasting result of this method is better, so the method is effective.