用灰色系统理论建立住房需求预测模型的构想

A Approach to Construct the House Demand Forecasting Model by Use of Gray System Theory

根据灰色系统理论，通过对影响住宅需求因素的关联度分析，确定进入预测模型的状态变量集，并对状态变量作一次累加生成运算，建立ＧＭ（１，ｍ）和ＧＭ（１，１）联动状态转移方程；通过联动方程的求解构建住宅需求预测模型，并用最小二乘法估计预测模型中的待定参数；最后对预测模型的精度检验及利用残差ＧＭ（１，１）对模型进行修正作了初步探讨。

The method to determine which factors should be considered when the house demands are forecasting is researched,and by application of the gray system theory,the state transferring formula GM(1, m ) and GM(1,1) are established through AGO,and then the forecasting model is got.The parameters in the model are estimated by use of the least square principle,and the accuracy checking is studied.Finally,a example is given to illustrate how to construct the model and how to apply the model to forecast the house demands.