气候变化对四川盆地作物生产潜力的影响评估

Impact of Climatic Variation on Crop Potential Productivity in Sichuan Basin

计算了四川盆地作物的光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,选择代表站点分析了主要气象因子的变化特征及其对生产潜力的影响。结果表明,四川盆地日照时数和降水量在减少,气温在升高,日照时数和降水量的减少使生产潜力降低,而气温升高具有增加作用;各类生产潜力在1970 s都属于高值时期,光温生产潜力在2006年达到另一个高值;近十年各类生产潜力平均值均较1970 s有所减少,盆地平均气温升高1℃,光温生产潜力增加6%,降水量减少10%,气候生产潜力减少1.6%。

The photosynthetic potential productivity, light- temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity in Sichuan Basin were calculated, then some stations were selected to analyze variation character of main meteorologic factors and the impact of which on crop potential productivity. The results showed that sunshine duration and precipitation were decreasing which made potential productivity decrease, and temperature was rising which made potential productivity rise. In 1970s, every type of potential productivity was higher relativity, and light -temperature potential productivity got another higher value in 2006. While in recent ten years, every type of potential productivity was less than that in 1970s, light - temperature potential productivity will increase 6% as the temperature rises 1 ℃, and climatic potential productivity will decrease 1. 6% as precipitation decrease 10% o The difference between potential productivity and real productivity was analyzed, then two keys to improve real productivity to suit climate variation were advised, one was to quicken to construct large - middle type of irrigation projects and develop water saving irrigation, another was to use the rise of temperature.