摘要
作物病虫害的综合管理是一个多因素的复杂系统,针对这一特点,本文全面阐述了灰色系统模型的建立与预测方法,建立了作物病虫害测报中的GM(1,1)模型,测报准确性较高,模型模拟检验精度达到I级水平,发展系数<0.3,可用于该地区作物病虫害作中长期预测。
The management of crop diseases and insect pests was a complexity system. This paper introduced the basic models of grey system and the author gave the GM （ 1,1 ） model of crop diseases and insect pests using the grey system. The verify precision of model simulating comes to first level,its expand modulus（a） was less than 0.3. So the model could be used as mediunrterm or long -term forecasting for crop diseases and insect pests.
出处
《高原山地气象研究》
2009年第2期54-55,共2页
Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research
基金
中国气象局"中国主要农作物病虫害气象等级预报业务系统建设"
四川省气象局2009年重点课题"四川粮食安全的农业气象问题研究(20090501)
关键词
灰色系统理论
作物病虫害
预测
grey system theory ,crop diseases and insect pests, forecasting
