经济新区用水量预测系统动力学方法研究——以天津临空产业区为例

A system dynamics approach for economic developing zone water demand forecasting:a case study of Tianjin Linkong area

针对经济新区社会经济环境系统特点,在对其内部诸要素间相互关系分析和水资源系统分析的基础上,建立分质供水系统动力学(SD)模型,并将其应用于经济新区需水量预测中.根据区域分质供水的可能性和必要性,以及不同用水部门对供水水质要求的不同,可预测人口、经济和环境因素在规划期内对不同水质的水资源需求量,并且通过比较和分析不同发展模式的模拟结果,可进行水资源可持续利用战略选择及需水量预测,从而为水系统规划提供科学支持.

A system dynamics （SD） approach for economic developing zone water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of its water resources system which has muhi-feedback and nonlinear interactions amongst system elements. As an example, Tianjin Linkong water resource system dynamic （SD） model was set up according its dual water supply feasibility and different quality water demand for different department utility characters to forecast different water resources demand of the planning years, in which population, economy, and environment factors were considered into one package. Furthermore, through comparing and analyzing the simulation results in different development mode which the article framed, the forecasting results as well as the sustainable use of water resources strategy were gotten, thus afforded scientific support to sound plan.