蚜传烟草花叶病流行规律的探讨 Ⅱ.田间病情指数动态模型

THE STUDIES ON EPIDEMIC DYNAMICS OF TOBACCO MOSAIC DISEASE TRANSMITTED BY APHIDS Ⅱ.AMULTIPLE REGRESSION MATHEMATICAL MODEL ON THE DISEASE INDEX

在建立烟草花叶病田间病株率与烟蚜关系的数学模型的基础上，选用反映烟草经济损失的病情指数作为预测目标，从分析病情指数增加与烟株生长状况、传媒蚜虫数量、气候因子等的关系入手，通过多元主成分分析，得出烟草花叶病病情指数的增加与田间烟草单株面积着落蚜量、日平均温度成正相关，与日平均降水量和日平均相对湿度成负相关。

The indice which could reflect the yield loss of tobacco mosaic disease were chosen as the objectives of prediction on the basis of mathematical model of percentage of infected tobacco plants with the number of tobacco aphids. The regression analysis showed that the increment of disease indice correlated positively with both the number of migratory aphids per tobacco plant and daily average temperature,but negatively with daily average precipitation and daily average relative humidity. Therefore,the multiple regression model was developed.