气侯转型对玛纳斯河流域径流的影响及其变化趋势

Climate Transformation on the Impact of the Manasi River Runoff and the Future Projections

针对气候转型,根据近50年玛纳斯河上下游气象、水文资料,采用5年滑动平均、模比系数差积曲线、线性趋势等方法,分析了气候转型对玛纳斯河径流的影响。结果显示:玛纳斯河流域50年以来的气温呈上升趋势,平均气温增长率为0.38℃.10年-1,降水量也呈增长趋势;由于气温、降水增加趋势明显,导致1987年以后玛纳斯河径流呈增长趋势,洪水和洪灾发生的频次增加,这表明玛纳斯河流域气侯的变化已出现由暖干向暖湿转型的强劲信号,预计玛纳斯河的丰水期可能持续至2050年。

Climate Science for restructuring problem, according to the Manasi River on the upper and lower reaches of meteorological, hydrological 50a near conventional, using 5a moving average, worse-than modulus model product curve, linear trend, and other methods, analyses the climate transitional impact on the Manasi River runoff. The regrowth result in the Manasi River run-off in 1987 after increasing trend in the occurrence of floods and flood frequency increased. Analysis shows that the Manasi River basin climate change has emerged a strong signal of the transition from warm-dry to warm-wet. Manasi River is expected since 1988 after the restructuring of the increase in precipitation and runoff trends may continue for several years, amd will be diverted to a relatively short period of dry season, then transferred to the more high wet period of the Manasi River. The high wet period may last until 2050.