趋势面分析在探索鼻咽癌死亡率地理分布特征中的应用

Application of the trend surface analysis for exploring the geographical distribution of the mortality of nasopha-ryngeal carcinoma

目的:应用趋势面分析为鼻咽癌死亡率的地理分布提供线索。方法:利用1990-1992年全国恶性肿瘤死亡调查资料,建立不同性别鼻咽癌死亡率的趋势面函数,选择合适阶次的趋势面函数并作趋势等值线图及残差分析。结果:对中国鼻咽癌死亡率数据进行一阶至五阶趋势面函数拟合,不论男性还是女性,中国鼻咽癌死亡率趋势面分析均发现,三阶趋势面拟合优度为最佳,拟合优度分别为83.65%、81.36%。残差分析提示:辽宁、上海、广东、广西、四川存在男性鼻咽癌死亡相对增高的因素,黑龙江、福建、江西、湖南、海南存在男性鼻咽癌死亡相对降低的因素;辽宁、上海、广东、广西、四川存在女性鼻咽癌死亡相对增高的因素,江苏、安徽、福建、海南、云南存在女性鼻咽癌死亡相对降低的因素。结论:我国东南及其内陆地区,男性或女性鼻咽癌死亡率均处在一较高水平,这一地区与我国年降水量在800mm以上地区相吻合。鼻咽癌死亡率是否与年降水量有关值得我们进一步研究。其他地区男性或女性鼻咽癌死亡率地区分布有所不同。某些异常点值得我们去探讨,为鼻咽癌病因研究提供线索。

Objective： To apply trend-surface analysis for poviding clue on of mortality nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Methods： Trend-surface equation was established for mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in male and female using data from the 1990-1992 mortality survey in the whole country, then proper regression equation for trend contour map and residual analysis. Results： The third-order equation was established for mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in males with its fit goodness as 83.65% and in females with its fit goodness as 81.36%. There were positive residuals in Liaoning, Shanghai, Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan, while the negative residuals were in Heilongjiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hainan for males. There were positive residuals in Liaoning, Shanghai, Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan, while the negative residuals were in Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Hainan and Yunnan for females. Conclusion： The mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among males and females is high in southeast and its inland areas which accord with the annual rainfall more than 800 mm areas. The relationship between nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality with annual rainfall is worthy of further investigation. The mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in other areas between males or females appears to be different. In those areas where the residual values are anomalous, further studies need to be carried out.