进出口贸易对通货膨胀的影响模型分析

The Model of Impact of Import and Export Trade on the Inflation and Corresponding Analysis

本文建立了进出口贸易对通货膨胀影响的半参数变系数部分线性模型,采用Profile最小二乘估计对模型参数进行了估计,并与简单的多元线性回归模型作比较。研究结果显示:半参数变系数部分线性模型更具有效性,预测能力也非常的优良,能更好的反映出进出口贸易与通货膨胀之间的关系。最后,利用研究结果并结合经济理论对抑制我国通货膨胀提出了建议与措施。

This paper constructed the semi - parametric varying-coefficient partially linear model to study the impact of inflation on the import and export trade, using Profile least squares estimation of the parameters of the model estimates, and compared it with a simple multiple linear regression modal.The resuhs showed that：semi-variable coefficients parameters of the linear model is more effective,better forecasting capabilities,to better reflect the relationship between the import and export trade and inflation. Using economic theory, this paper puts forwant proposals and measures to curb inflation in China.