我国固定资产投资的ARIMA模型分析与预测

ARIMA Model Analysis and Prediction of China's Fixed Assets Investment

本文综合运用了时间序列预测方法,对我国固定资产投资总额进行了分析,建立了自回归求积移动模型ARIMA(4,1,4)。检验结果表明,该模型提供了较好的预测结果,可为我国全社会固定资产投资提供可靠的参考数据。

This article analyses the data of China＇ s fixed assets investment and establishes ARIMA（4,2,4） model with time - series forecasting methods. The analysis shows that the model provides comparatively precise estimation results, which can offer a reasonable basis for China＇s fixed assets investment.