血吸虫病传播动力学模型及其应用

Schistosomiasis Transmission Dynamics Model and its Application

目的利用Barbour双宿主模型,分析血吸虫病传播规律,给出一种求模型系数的新方法。方法应用新尚村观测资料,通过数值计算,预测人牛同步化学治疗控制措施的效果。结果该措施的短期效果显著,中期效果较好,长期较差。讨论在提高短期效果的情况下,应加强对疫区疫情的类别监控。模型的数值模拟结果显示人牛同步化疗治疗控制措施,并没有根本治愈疾病,仍存在长期流行的风险。

Objective Barbour＇s Two -host Model was applied to analyze the discipline of schistosomiasis transmission, and a new method of seeking model coefficients was provided. Method According to the results after numerical calculation of the statistical data in Xinshang Village Babaigong Town Beinan County in the north of Dongting Lake, the effect of human -cattle synchronous chemotherapy can be numerically forecasted. Results The effect of this chemotherapy is satisfying in short - term, but poor in long - term. Conclusion While the short - term effect should be improved, the supervision of the epidemic areas should be strengthened. The numerical results of the model demonstrate that human - cattle synchronous chemotherapy does not remove the root cause of schistosomiasis. There still exists the risk of the spreading of schistosomiasis in long term.