新疆天山北坡带中部大降水专家预报系统

Expert Forecast System of Large-quantity Rainfall in the Middle of North-piedmont of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang

新疆天山北坡带中部地区3-10月大降水天气频繁发生，对农业生产有弊也有利，具有重要意义。笔者通过对这一期间大降水过程前的西风带系统演变特征、西太副高西伸北抬、伊朗副高东伸北挺对大降水的先兆性及各种尺度系统之间的相互作用的分析，并依据这些特征结合T213产品和卫星云图资料的应用，建立了大降水专家预报系统，在2006年至2008年3-10月期间业务化应用中效果显著，大降水量级预报评分T。为66％，使大降水天气的预报准确率有了显著提高。

Large-quantity Rainfall frequently occurred in the middle of the North-piedmont of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang which had both advantages and disadvantages with a great significant. Through analyzing westerlies system evolution characteristic, northwest pacific subtropical high pressure westward extended and northward lifted, and iran subtropical high pressure eastward extended and northward marching before big precipitation process, the paper established the expert forecast system of large-quantity rainfall according to the characters to combine the T213 product with the satellite cloud material application. This system had remarkable effects on operational application from March to October of 2006 - 2008, the scores TS of large-quantity rainfall degree predication is 66% , which enhanced the predication of large-quantity rainfall effective accurately.