摘要
总结了当前国内外突发公共事件应急交通疏散需求预测的研究现状。结合运筹学中的相关理论,建立了用于分析应急交通资源优化配置的避难场所定位模型,以及预测应急交通需求分布的运输问题数学模型,以确定人员运输需求量分布OD矩阵和物资运输需求量分布OD矩阵。提出了一个改进的应急交通需求时变曲线函数。以重庆天原化工总厂的氯气泄漏事件为研究对象,选取TransCAD作为仿真平台,确定事件影响范围内需要紧急撤离的人员运输需求的静态OD矩阵,根据应急交通需求时变曲线函数获得时变的宏观交通需求信息。
Current domestic and foreign scholars＇ researches on traffic evacuation for demand forecast of emergent public events were reviewed. Some analysis models were built for emergency transportation resources optimization arrangement and evacuation travel demand forecast based on operation research theory. Time-variation demand forecast of emergent traffic evacuation based on S-curve was advanced. Then, the chlorine leak blast in Chongqing Tianyuan Chemical Industry Plant was taken as a case study. The foundational roadway network around this plant was build by selecting the TransCAD software as the traffic evacuation simulation platform.
出处
《交通信息与安全》
2009年第3期92-96,共5页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
关键词
S-曲线
时变
交通疏散
交通需求
预测
S-curve
time-variation
traffic evacuation
traffic demand
forecast
