房地产基础价值及泡沫类型解析——以上海市为例

Analysis on the basic value of the real estate industry and its bubble types——Take the city of Shanghai as the example

本文应用时变现值模型对上海商品房的基础价值进行了测算,在此基础上计算各时期商品房价格与价值的偏离值,通过对偏离值的统计检验证实存在房地产泡沫。结果表明:爆炸性泡沫并不存在;内生性泡沫和趋势性泡沫是构成实际泡沫的主要成分;内生性泡沫的影响要高于趋势性泡沫的影响。

This article uses a time - varying present - value model to measure the basic value of Shanghai commercial housing, calculates the deviation of housing price from the value at various periods, and proves the existence of the real estate bubbles through statistical test. The results suggest that： explosive bubbles do not exist; endogenous bubbles and tendency bubbles constitute the main components of real bubbles; the influence of endogenous bubbles is greater than that of tendency bubbles.