机场水泥混凝土道面使用寿命的改进灰色预测模型

Modified gray prediction model of service life for airport cement concrete pavement

为了准确预测机场水泥混凝土道面使用寿命,根据道面的使用性能特点,确定道面破损度为道面使用寿命的控制指标。采用灰色系统理论建立了道面使用寿命灰色预测模型,利用计算原点残差的方法检验模型的精度,并采用数据序列中最近时间点的实测值为求解的初始条件改进模型求解过程。研究结果表明:机场水泥混凝土道面破损度与道面使用时间呈指数型递增关系,道面剩余使用寿命随使用时间呈指数型衰减;道面破损度预测值与实测值的误差不超过5%,因此,该模型有效,可用于定期检测的道面。

In order to accurately predict the service life for airport cement concrete pavement, the service characters of airport cement concrete pavement were studied, pavement breakage degree was considered as pavement service life index. A gray prediction model was established according to gray system theory. Its prescision was tested by using origin residual error method. The solving process of the model was improved by taking the latter measuring value of pavement breakage degree as initial condition. Analysis result shows that pavement breakage degree increases exponentially with service time, but pavement remaining service life decreases exponentially with service time. The relative error between the forecast value and actual value of pavement breakage degree is less than 5 %, so the prediction model is effective and can be used in periodic inspectability pavement. 3 tabs, 1 fig, 9 refs.