摘要
论述了对BOT项目进行风险分析的必要性。指出BOT项目投资大、周期长等特点决定了其高风险性,若不对BOT项目进行科学的风险分析与管理,风险一旦发生,就无法弥补,甚至最终导致项目的失败。传统的敏感性分析作为一种重要的BOT项目风险分析方法存在着不足,基于此,该文提出了一种新型的风险分析方法——敏感性模糊分析。然后,通过实例分析认为,该方法有效地弥补了传统敏感性分析的不足,是一种行之有效的BOT项目风险分析方法。
The necessity of risk analysis of BOT projects is discussed. It is pointed out that BOT project needs large investment with long term and has high risk. The risk would not be controlled, and even ultimately lead to project failure without the scientific BOT project risk analysis and management. To the shortage of traditional risk analysis method, a fuzzy sensitivity analysis method to BOT project risk analysis is presented. The results of case study of a BOT project practical example show that the sensitivity fuzzy analysis is a very effective method of project risk analysis in practice.
