大伙房跨流域引水工程预报调度方式研究

Study on forecast-based operation mode for Dahuofang inter-basin water transfer project

本文以辽宁省的"东水西调"工程为背景,进行大伙房跨流域引水工程预报调度方式的研究。首先,分析基于预报信息的跨流域调水工程调度方式研究的必要性;其次,利用回归分析法,分析旬降雨、旬初土壤含水量、旬径流量的关系,建立并求解旬降雨径流预报模型,模型精度较高,可应用于调水决策;最后,基于旬径流预报结果、农业用水及来水的相关关系,研究大伙房水库引水后的预报调度规则、预报调度方式以及预报调度图。通过历史资料进行长系列调节,结果表明基于旬径流预报信息的调水调度方式在满足了用水保证的前提下,实现了引水量和弃水量较小的目的。

Taking＂East-to-West Water Transfer＂ project in Liaoning province as background, this paper focuses study on forecast-based operation mode for Dahuofang inter-basin water transfer project. Firstly, the necessity and feasibility of forecast-based operation mode for inter-basin water transfer project operation is analyzed. Then, the equation for the relation precipitation, runoff quantity and soil beginning moisture in ten days is developed. It can be used for inter-basin water transfer decision making. Finally, the forecast-based operation mode, decision-making rule and chart for the inter-basin water transfer operation is studied according to the forecasted runoff and the relationship between irrigation-water and inflow of Dahuafang reservoir. Long-term historical data manipulation shows that, comparing with the conventional operation way, the forecast-based operation mode transfers fewer water resources with fewer water waste.