基于洪水预报调度方式的汛限水位设计方法探讨

Design method of flood control water level based on flood forecast

传统汛限水位设计是基于常规调度方式的,然而现在我国很大一部分水库在运行阶段采用洪水预报调度方式。和常规调度方式相比,洪水预报调度方式的优势是可以提前一个预见期获知水情判别指标,进而水库可提前一个预见期转入高一级泄量,即基于洪水预报调度方式的水库出流过程线可由基于常规调度方式的过程线向前平移一个预见期得到,且前移时需要满足一定的约束条件。这是一种面向对象的思想,利用了传统汛限水位设计方法的结果,而不是过程,基于此,本文提出了约束前移法设计汛限水位。经桓仁—回龙库群实例研究表明,经济效益显著。

Traditional design of reservoir flood control water level is based on the mode of routine flood control, whereas the mode of flood-forecasted control is adopted in operational phases nowadays. The predominance of the latter mode, compared with the former, lie in obtaining indication of flood conditions with one lead period ahead, consequently the reservoir could switch to the followed higher discharge status with the same lead period ahead. Therefore, the reservoir outflow process associated with the flood-forecasted model could yield the same lead period forward than the corresponding process of routine flood control with some restrictive conditions. Accordingly, an object-oriented constrained shift forward method is presented, which utilizes the output of traditional design method. The instance results demonstrate that the economic benefits of Huanren-Huilong reservoirs group are great.