水库调度决策中的风险及其传递计算方法

Study on the Calculation Method of Risk and Risk Transmission in Reservoir Operating Decision

水库长期调度是中期和短期调度的指导。由于水文长期预报的不精确，使得长期调度决策很难。针对这一问题，本文提出当时段风险和风险传递的计算方法，从多时段考虑计算出风险，为决策者提供决策依据。

The long term operation is the basis of mediam term and short term operation. Owing to the inaccuracy of long term hydrologic forecast, the long term operation decision becomes very difficult. This paper presents current period risk calculation method and the transmission calculation method of the last period risk to solve this problem. Accordingly, the risk calculated by considering multi time sections, will provide the decision making information for the decision makers.