从劳动力流动到区域产业转移——江苏双二元经济结构的演变机制分析

From Labor Flow to Regional Industrial Transfer:An Empirical Analysis on the Evolving Mechanism of Double Dual Economic Structures in Jiangsu Province

基于江苏省二元经济发展情况,把空间产业转移因素引入传统的部门二元经济模型,提出了一个包含部门和空间的双二元经济结构,并以此来分析劳动力流动、产业的空间布局以及政府政策三类要素对双二元经济结构的影响。理论分析表明,产业转移改变了劳动力流动的空间选择,即从"外地转移"向"本地转移"转变;政府政策则改变了劳动力流动的成本收益比,提高了企业转移产业资本的利润空间,便利了劳动力在部门和区域之间的流动,从而有助于消解双二元结构。运用江苏省13个地级市1996年—2006年间的数据进行的实证分析也表明,非农劳动力比重的增加、FDI形式的资本转移有助于缩小城乡居民收入差距;但区域协调发展政策并未促使部门间收入差距的缩小,而且不同的区域收入差距的决定模式也不相同。但是,总体而言,促使二元经济发散的力量仍占主导地位。

Based on Jiangsu＇s economic development experience since the reform and opening-up to the outside world, this paper consid- ers the spatial industrial transfer mechanisms into the traditional dual economic model, and puts forward a double dual economic structure to analyze the influence of labor flow, spatial distribution of industries and government policies on the evolution of double dual economy. Industrial transfers expand the spatial choice for rural labors flow. The governmental policies alter the cost-revenue ratio of labor flow, in- crease the profit of firms transferring industrial capitals, facilitate labor flows between inter-sectors and inter-regions, and thus melting the double dual economy. An empirical analysis based on data from 13 cities in Jiangsu Province from 1996 to 2006 shows that the in- crease of nonagricultural labor force, the capital transfer in the form of FDI contributes to the narrowing of the income gap between the city and the countryside. The policy of regional coordination does not promote the above narrowing and the mechanism to influence the in- come gap varies in different regions. But, generally, the force that drives the dual economy structure still prevails.