摘要
为研究河道防洪堤坝事故的概率，把水文风险和水流风险区分开，根据风险理论给出一种考虑水流风险因子的风险分析方法，探讨河道防洪堤坝仅因水流参数出现偏差而失事的概率，为正确评价现行防洪堤坝的安全性提供了必要的依据．算例表明，对于防洪标准较高的河道，应重视水流参数偏差引起的水流风险．所得结论对水文风险分析计算的进一步研究具有借鉴价值。
For the study the failure probability of flood control dams,hydraulic risk is differentiated from hydrological risk in this paper.A method for evaluating the hydraulic risk is developed by use of risk theory.It is helpful for flood control planning and design.The hydraulic risk caused by the uncertainty of hydraulic parameters should be emphasized.
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1998年第3期71-75,共5页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
关键词
河道
防洪堤坝
荷载
抗力
水流风险
估算
river channel
flood control dam
loading
resistance
hydraulic risk
