竞争情报工作中的证实性偏差及其克服方法

由于"理性有限",人们在收集信息和分析信息时常常出现偏差。最常见的偏差是证实性偏差,证实性偏差指人们有意或无意地寻找支持自己看法的信息和解释,避免不同看法的信息和解释的倾向。证实性偏差的形成是因为我们的"成见"。为减少竞争情报工作中的证实性偏差,情报工作者需要扩大知识面,掌握坚实的理论基础。在分析情报的过程中,应假设不同的情景并加以论证。群体决策时不同极端意见相互抵消的机制也有助于减少偏差。

Because of ＂bounded rationality＂, people often have biases in the process of information collection and analysis. The most common bias is confirmation bias, which means people tend to intentionally or unconscious- ly look for the information and interpretation that support their opinions and avoid those that have different opinions. The cause of the confirmation bias is that people have ＂prejudice＂. In order to reduce the confirmation bias in com- petitive intelligence, the intelligence personnel should enlarge their knowledge scope and lay a solid theoretical foundation. In the process of information analysis, different scenarios should be supposed and demonstrated. In group decision, the mechanism of mutual offsetting of different extreme opinions can also help to reduce the bias.