中国民航国内客运需求价格弹性研究

China Civil Aviation Domestic Passenger Transport Demand Price Elasticity Research

首先根据旅行目的、航程距离、居民可支配收入和需求季节性构建了旅客分类概念模型,在此基础上运用经济学理论和计量经济学方法,建立了民航国内旅客需求函数,并使用2006年行业运行数据,测算分析了不同类型旅客、不同季节和不同航程距离下的价格弹性系数及其特征,获得了城镇居民可支配收入是国内民航旅客价格弹性主要影响因素的结论,最后对政府提高价格政策的科学性和有效性、航空公司提高收益管理水平提出了建议和应对策略。将经济学和计量经济学的经典理论与中国民航实际相结合,定量分析中国民航旅客的需求行为特征是本研究的创新之处。

According to the purpose of travel, flight distance, disposable income of urban resident and seasonality to build a conceptual model of passenger classification. And based on the economic theory and econometric methods, the author establishes the domestic aviation passenger demand function and then using China airlines data in 2006 to estimate the coefficient of elasticity and study the various factors mentioned above on the impact of civil aviation market situation in China. Studies have shown that the disposable income of urban residents is the most important impact on domestic aviation passenger demand, the prices have very different effects on different categories of passengers. Demand elasticity of leisure travelers is greater than the overall market. Applying economics and econometrics to China＇s civil aviation passenger market research, and the quantitative analysis of China＇s civil aviation passenger demand behavioral characteristics are the innovation features of this paper.