中国金融状况指数对货币政策传导作用研究

Study on Finance Condition Index and Asset Price Channel of Monetary Policy in China

文章利用VECM模型构建了我国的金融状况指数,并对我国通货膨胀进行预测检验,发现包含资产价格信息的金融状况指数能够在当前金融市场频繁波动、资产价格急剧变化的市场条件下,对通货膨胀做出及时、有效的预测。这表明资产对经济的作用日益增强,中央银行在实施货币政策时,必须考虑到资产价格对货币政策的传导影响。然而,当利用金融状况指数对货币政策的资产传递渠道进行分析时,却发现货币政策传导过程中资产价格对产出的影响不大。因此,在实施货币政策时,可以关注资产价格变化对通货膨胀的影响,但由于资产价格在传导过程反应不足,目前还暂不能将资产价格作为货币政策的实际操作指标。

The paper constructs the finance condition index based VECM and forecasts the inflation in China by making using of FCI. It finds that FCI containing the asset price information can make a timely and effective forecast of inflation even on the condition of the frequent fluctuation of current financial market and asset prices, which implies that the assets have more important effects on the economy. Therefore, the central bank must pay an attention to the effects of asset prices on monetary policy when putting monetary policy into practice. When analyzing the asset price channel of monetary policy by FCI, it shows that asset prices have limited effects on the output. Therefore, it should focus on the effect of the changes of asset prices on inflation when implementing monetary policy. However, at present the asset prices shouldn＇t be regarded as a real operating indicator of monetary policy because asset prices can＇t take a sufficient reaction to the monetary policy.