全球视角的对外资产与负债——方法论的重新表述

The Foreign Assets and Liabilities from the Global Perspective:A Reformulation of Methodology

文章推演了测算净国外资产的两种方法:资本项目直接法与经常项目间接法的原理。推演结果显示,在考虑市价变动因素的情况下,前者更准确。测算结果发现,我国从1996年开始有正的对外净资产,但要大大低于经常项目累计顺差或累计外汇储备。因此,不能只关注对外资产而忽视对外负债的增值。我国还存在着对外资产负债主体错配与货币错配。从国际比较看,也不能说我国已持有了过高的净国外资产。以全球视角看,穷国向富国输出资本的发展模式不可持续,也不应该持续。

The paper presents the principles of two methods applied to measure net foreign assets, namely, the direct method of financial account and the indirect method of current account. The deduction shows that the direct method is more accurate to measure foreign assets when considering price fluctuation. Results explore that since 1996 China has became a net creditor, but the net foreign assets are much lower than the cumulative current account surplus or the cumulative foreign exchange reserves. We shouldn＇t only focus on foreign assets, but ignore the added value of foreign liabilities. And there exist problems of agent mismatch of foreign assets and liabilities and monetary mismatch. Compared to other countries, foreign assets hold by China are not excessive. From the global perspective, the development mode that the rich countries absorb capital from the poor countries will not be sustainable and also should not be sustained.