汶川8.0级地震序列动态跟踪过程对地震预报的启示

Inlightenment to Earthquake Prediction from the Dynamic Tracing Process to Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake Sequence

通过对汶川8.0级地震的类型和破裂特征分析,讨论了龙门山构造带地震活动与甘肃省地震活动的关系。回顾了对汶川地震序列的动态跟踪过程以及余震活动在甘肃省的震情判定过程。认为地震预报应从地震的孕育、发展和发生过程中获得更多的物理信息,改变以往以经验、统计预报为主的模式,向以物理预报为主的预报模式迈进。

Through the analysis on type of earthquake and rupture features of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the relationship of seismic activties between Longmenshan fault zone and Gansu province is discussed. Meanwhile the dynamic tracing process to Wenchuan earthquake sequence and how successfully predicting the aftershock activity in Gansu province are reviewed. Based on above, it is considered that we should obtain more physical informations from the process of earthquake pregnancy-developing-occurrence, and change the present earthquake prediction model which mainly depend on experience and statistics to a new model of physical earthquake prediction.