油气勘探开发投资比例与储量接替率关系探讨

RELATION BETWEEN INVESTMENT PROPORTION AND RESERVE REPLACEMENT RATIO DURING OIL-GAS EXPLORATION

当前,储量接替率已经成为衡量国际大油公司发展潜力的重要标志之一,而保持合理的勘探开发投资比例是储量接替率增长的内在因素。1991年以来全球持续增长的勘探开发投资推动了产量的增长,而2000年以来勘探投资的不足削弱了增储上产的基础。通过分析1991年以来世界原油价格从低向高一个完整周期内全球、典型地区以及世界主要石油公司的勘探开发投资比例与储采平衡的关系,认为勘探投资占上游投资比例维持在20%以上,有利于保持储采平衡,如能达到25%~30%,有利于石油公司储量接替率保持长期稳定和可持续发展,一旦低于20%,可能导致储采失衡。

Reserve Replacement Ratio （RRR） has been one of vital marks to scale the development potential of global petroleum companies, which must remain a rational exploration investment proportion. Since 1991, the global increasing exploration investment has driven the reserve, but this goes reverse since 2000. This paper, based on the global oil price, relation between investment proportion and RRR in major petroleum companies, presents that the exploration investment proportion shall be around 20% , which can balance the reserve and mining; if it reaches 25 30% it is very advantageous for petroleum companies to keep a stable RRR and sustainable development, and could lead to an unbalance of reserve and mining if lower than 20%.