基于面板数据的省会城市居住地价的差异及成因研究

An Analysis of the Discrepancies of Residential Land Prices and Its Causes Based on the Panel Data of Provincial Capitals in China

研究目的:基于2000—2006年面板数据,分析省会城市居住地价的差异、主要影响因子及其影响程度。研究方法:混合OLS估计方法、固定效应模型和随机效应模型。研究结果:(1)中国省会城市居住地价存在明显的时空差异,2005年及以后地价增长明显,且东部地区地价与中、西部地区的差距进一步拉大;(2)将城市间居住地价的影响因素分为全国宏观经济因素、区域整体差异因素和城市个体因素三个层面,并基于引致需求理论,构建更具实效性的城市居住地价影响因子体系;(3)建成区面积、城市人均GDP、国际旅游收入、2004年8月31日之后土地供应方式的重大转变(正向关系)和房地产开发投资(负向关系)对居住地价有显著影响。研究结论:面板数据模型是中国城市间地价问题定量分析的一个有效工具。

The purpose of this paper is to calculate the discrepancies of residential land prices among provincial capitals and to investigate into the causes as well as their influential degrees on the basis of panel data from 2002 to 2006. Methods of mixed OLS model, fixed effects model, random effects model are applied in the research. The conclusions are as follows ： 1 ） the residential land prices have significantly increased since 2005 in all of the provincial capital cities, and the prices gap between the eastern China and the rest regions has enlarged, 2） the factors influencing the residential land price are divided into national, regional, and city levels, and an effective factor system determining the land price was built based on the derived demand theory, 3） the detailed factors that influencing residential land price include the acreage of construction area, GDP per capita, income from overseas tourism, the reform of land supply policy in urban primary land market after August 31st, 2004, and the investment in real estate sector. The last factor is negatively related with the price, while other factors all have positive relation with the land price according to the finding of the paper.