新甲型H1N1流感病毒及疫情分析

Pandemic analysis of the novel influenza A(H1N1) virus

新甲型H1N1流感疫情正在从北美洲向全球逐步蔓延,引起了全世界的关注。本文介绍了此次新甲型H1N1流感的流行概况及特点,分析了病毒的遗传学特征,并尝试性地对新甲型H1N1流感的国际流行态势及对我国的影响进行了初步评估。初步分析认为,新甲型H1N1流感病毒极有可能引发一次全球范围的流感大流行,但其对人类健康造成的危害程度会比1918、1957和1968年3次流感要低;在中国不可避免地会出现一些散发病例甚至小规模的局部暴发流行,但近期造成大规模暴发流行的可能性较小。

The outbreak of novel influenza A （ H1 N1 ） that started in North America is now sweeping the world, arousing worldwide attention. What kind of disease it is and what impact it will have on human health is of common concern. In this article, we first give introduction to the epidemic and genetic characteristics of the novel influenza A （ H1N1 ） virus and then analyze the trends and pandemic potential of this influenza. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the novel influenza A （H1N1） virus could trigger a global influenza pandemic, but not as severe as those in 1918, 1957, 1968. Inevitably, there will be some sporadic eases or even small-scale outbreak, but the chance of a large-scale outbreak in the near future is small in our country.