股市收益、收益波动与中国城镇居民消费行为

Stock Market Returns,Volatility and Urban Residential Consumption Behavior in China

本文通过构造边际消费倾向理论模型，发现股市收益波动是影响居民边际消费倾向的重要因子，而股市收益对居民边际消费倾向的影响带有不确定性；股市正财富效应的发挥与否的主要因素之一是经济风险大小；并依据模型分析了股市财富效应的非对称性特征。实证研究证实了模型的结论，且发现股市收益产生的影响随着时滞的增长将变得更加不确定。

This paper constructs a theoretical model of consumption and shows that the volatility of stock market returns is an important factor to influence the marginal propensity of consumption, but the influence of the level of stock market returns is uncertain. Our empirical analysis proves our theoretical propositions. In addition, we find that the impact of earlier stock market returns becomes more uncertain on current consumption.