MM5模式在三峡工程大风预报中的应用及检验分析

Application of Mesoscale Model to Strong Wind Forecast in Three Gorges Project Area

利用基于MM5中尺度模式的短时预警系统的逐小时风向风速预报产品和三峡工程周边自动气象站逐小时观测资料,对2007年1月至2008年5月三峡坝区发生的大风天气进行预报检验分析。结果表明,中尺度模式对雷雨大风基本无预报能力,但对晴空系统性大风有很强的预报能力,模式可以对晴空系统性大风的出现时间、强度变化趋势和风向提供较准确的预报,对晴空系统性大风的结束时间也有一定的预报能力。宜昌市气象局利用基于中尺度模式的短时预警系统预报晴空系统性大风,用多普勒雷达对雷雨大风进行临近监测,近年来在三峡工程气象保障服务中取得了良好的服务效果。

Using the hourly wind speed and direction forecast products of the Short-term forecast system on the MM5 and the hourly surface wind data from the automatic weather stations in Three Gorges Project area from January 2007 to May 2008, strong wind forecast by MM5 is verified. The resuhs indicate that MM5 has effect on predicting the strong clear-air turbulence, but no effect on predicting the thunder storm. The beginning and ending time, strength variation tendency and wind direction of the strong clear-air turbulence can be forecasted well by mesoscale model. The problem of strong wind forecast in Three Gorge Project area has been solved by using the Doppler weather radar and the early warning system based on MM5 developed by Yichang Meteorological Bureau.