石油价格对我国通货膨胀影响的实证分析研究

Demonstration research analysis of petroleum price's influence on China inflation

石油是现代化工业国家的重要战略资源。随着中国对国际石油依赖程度的提高,中国石油市场与国民经济正面临着新的挑战。中国的通货膨胀也受到了石油价格越来越多的影响。本文通过建立"MLR(Q)模型"和"MLR(F)模型"分阶段观察国际、国内石油价格对我国通货膨胀动态影响。文章指出:中国通货膨胀受国内石油价格波动的影响显著,而受国际石油价格波动影响不明显;但随着中国石油进口量的增加及国内石油价格与国际石油价格的逐步接轨,国内通货膨胀率受国际石油价格的影响在逐渐扩大。

Oil is an important strategic resource in modern industrial countries .With China＇s increasing dependence on international oil and the international oil price＇s fluctuating, the Chinese oil market is facing a new challenges and the national economy has been influenced more than before .By analyzing the former effects, this paper finds the effect of domestic oil price on inflation is significant while the international oil price on inflation is not significant .But , the effect of international oil price on inflation is increasing.