IPCC评估报告气温变化观测数据的不确定性分析

Uncertainties of Temperature Observation Data in IPCC Assessment Report

IPCC评估报告给出了全球气候变暖的结论。本文从IPCC采集引用的数据源角度对其揭示的近百年地表增温结论进行了不确定性分析,具体包括地表气温观测网络空间分布、温度序列时间尺度、数据可信度、人类活动对温度的影响等。结果表明:百年尺度全球地表气温观测网络覆盖范围较少;经纬度单元网格内数据源分布不均匀;长时间尺度的温度序列记录有限,且不同年代气温记录数量存在显著差异;大量站点观测连续性差,年平均温度可信度低;目前使用的地面温度观测记录大部分来自大城市,对城市化的热岛效应考虑不足。

The global warming conclusion is given in 4th IPCC Assessment Report. This paper analyses uncertainties of surface temperature rise in recent 100 years from data source aspect referred in IPCC report, including spatial distribution of surface temperature observation stations, temperature series length, temperature reliability, urban heat island effect etc. It is concluded that （1） the coverage of surface temperature observation station in global skin has been low in recent 100 years; （2） spatial distribution of data source in some grid boxes is uneven; （3） there are limited long time series of temperature, and there are significant differences of annual temperature record quantities in different time periods; （4） deficient successive observations in many stations lead to low reliability of mean annual temperature; （5） most temperature records are obtained from urban stations, while heat island effect is not fully excluded in climate change research.