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中国财政风险两大警戒线的测算研究 被引量:8

Positive Analysis on the Two Warning Lines of Fiscal Risk in China
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摘要 在国际金融危机仍在蔓延和深化的条件下,我国于2008年重启的积极财政政策将持续较长时间,但由此导致的财政风险将对积极财政政策能走多远产生重要影响。本文在模型推导基础上,对我国财政风险两大警戒线进行实证测算,认为运用《马约》中所谓的"国际警戒线"来判断中国财政风险状况并不科学合理。主要研究发现:(1)我国财政赤字率和公债负担率的警戒线分别约为4.05%、49.05%,这与《马约》中的财政标准有较大差异。(3)以测算出的财政风险两大警戒线为评判基准,发现目前我国财政风险状况尚处于可控的、安全的区间,如2008年我国实际的财政赤字率和公债负担率尚与警戒线值分别相差约3.68%和31.33%,即具有较大的政策回旋余地和操作空间。 On the condition of world financial crisis deepening and widening, positive fiscal policy has been reopened in 2008 in China. However, fiscal risk may produce impact on the future of positive fiscal policy. The paper doesn't think it is reasonable to use the so-called "international warning lines" of fiscal risk formulated by Maustricht Treaty to analysis China's situation. By using the deduced appropriate models, the paper gave some positive analysis of the fiscal risk in China, and found that : ( 1 ) the warning lines of fiscal deficit rate and debt burden rate in China are approximately 4.05% and 49.05% respectively, it's different from the formulations of Maastricht Treaty; (2) in terms of the standards, it finds China's fiscal situation is still safe. For example, the balance between real rates and theoretic rates of two fiscal risk values are 3.68% and 31.33% respectively, i. e. China's positive policy still has a significant space to operate.
出处 《财经论丛》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第4期22-28,共7页 Collected Essays on Finance and Economics
关键词 财政风险 财政赤字率 债务负担率 警戒线 fiscal risk rate of fiscal deficit rate of debt burden warning line
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