贸易对中日韩经济周期协动性的影响研究

Effects of Trade on Business Cycle Co-movements among China,Japan,and Korea

对中日韩贸易对经济周期协动性的影响进行分析,可以得出结论:双边贸易强度对经济周期协动性的影响取决于双边产业内贸易强度的大小。产业内贸易强度大,则双边贸易强度与经济周期协动性为正相关;产业内贸易强度小,则双边贸易强度与经济周期协动性为负相关。另外,中日贸易中纺织纱线等6种行业的贸易有助于提高经济周期协动性,而服装等2种行业的贸易降低经济周期协动性;中韩贸易中有色金属相关行业等6种行业的贸易有助于提高经济周期协动性,而塑料等2种行业的贸易降低经济周期协动性。

This paper studies the effects of bilateral trade on business cycle co- movements among China, Japan, and Korea. We conclude that the effects of bilateral trade intensity on business cycle co - movements of these countries lie on the size of intrs - industry trade intensity. When intra - industry trade intensity is large, bilateral trade intensity and business cycle co - movements are positively correlated. When intra - industry trade intensity is small, bilateral trade intensity and business cycle co - move- ments are negatively correlated. Trades of textile fibers and in other 5 sectors between China and Japan will promote business cycle co - movements, and trades of clothing and in another sector between China and Japan will reduce business cycle co - move. ments. Trades of non - ferrous metals related 6 sectors between China and Korea will promote business cycle co - movements, and trades of plastic and in another sector between China and Korea will reduce business cycle co -movements.