广西6月区域性暴雨过程的延伸预测试验

An Extension Forecast Expreiment for Regional Rainstorm Process of Guangxi in June

应用NCEP/NCAR的1958—2008年3-6月的逐日20时SLP、850 hPa、700 hPa、500 hPa环流场再分析资料,选取覆盖广西区域的16个格点进行Lamb环流分型,分析造成广西区域性暴雨的主导系统。利用动态相似集成预测方法,制作延伸期内区域性暴雨过程预测。2003—2008年6月的实际预测结果检验表明,预测准确率可达70%,为短期气候过程预测提出了一个新的方法。

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from March to June of 1958--2008 and the 16 grids covering Guangxi, the leading influencing systems of the regional rainstorm in Guangxi were found out using the Lamb circulation sub-type method and EOF. The rainstorm processes were forecasted in the extension climate prediction using the method of dynamic similarity and integrated forecast during the June 2003--2008, the results of these experiments shown that it have a good performance. This paper presents a new method for the short-term climate prediction and provides a valuable objective basis for the severe wheather prediction and has an important practical value for the effectice policy-making for local goverment. Meanwhile it also has a better reference and early warning function under the situation of great difficalty for the middle and short term regional rainstorm prediction.