基于BP神经网络的汽车发动机寿命预测

The Prediction of Vehicle＇ s Service Life With BP Neural Network

用发动机汽缸磨损率构造时间序列,提出并应用BP神经网络对军用发动机汽缸磨损率进行预测,得到了较精确的预测结果。研究表明：利用神经网络能进行精确的趋势预测,预测误差随趋势变化率而变化。不仅准确地确定了汽车的储备里程及使用寿命,而且为汽车维修管理提供了科学依据。

By analyzing the wear rate of air cylinder with time series method,this paper gained a relatively precision predicting result with BP neural network. As the research indicates that BP neural network can use for precision prediction while it＇s error vary with the change rate of tendency. When the tendency of wear rate changes acute the error will enlarged ,contrarily the error will lessen . The research work of this paper is not only accurately make certain the service life and reserve course of development of vehicle but also provides warranty for vehicle maintenance and repair management.