不可修网络系统的可靠度计算

Reliability Calculation of Un-repairable Network Systems

工程实际中不可修网络系统可靠度的计算.以典型的桥式网络系统为例,分别采用概率图法、条件概率(分解)法、最小路方法、最小割方法、事件树法五种方法计算系统的可靠度,给出了计算过程.容易验证,计算结果是相同的.从中发现,条件概率法是一种分解法,只要选好单元进行分解,其计算量最小,可见,我们应该尽可能采用条件概率法.并给出利用条件概率法计算网络系统可靠度的例子,以示如何选取单元进行分解.

In calculating the reliability of un-repairable network in engineering practice, taking the typical bridge-network as example, five methods are gready applied to testify the degree of reliability with calculate process, which are respectively probability chart method, the conditional probability （decomposition） method, the minimal path method, and event tree method. The identical result can be easily achieved in those calculating processes with the given statistics. From the calculation, the conditional probability method turns out to be a resolution with smallest calculation load provided that the unit chosen to carry on the decomposition can be proved to be proper and suitable. Therefore, the conditional probability method is recommended in the paper to demonstrate how to select the unit to carry on the decomposition with its specific cases about the reliability of un-repairable network.