摘要
目前对房地产市场的研究主要集中于房价,而对量价关系的研究较少。鉴于此,文章利用1998～2008年的全国商品房季度数据,对我国商品房市场量价关系进行实证研究,并得出以下结论:从长期来看,我国商品房市场的交易量与价格之间存在协整关系;因果检验显示交易量是价格的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立;通过脉冲响应函数发现外界冲击导致了量价的一致波动且交易量对外界冲击的响应比房价更敏感。
In this paper, we investigate the price-volume correlation in commercial house market, given that previous studies mainly focus on house prices. Through the quarterly data of commercial house price and trading volume dating from 1998 to 2008, some conclusions are obtained as follows： there is a co-integration relationship between price and trading volume in the long term; trading volume Granger causes price, but price does not Granger cause trading volume; the result of impulse response function indicates that exogenous shocks lead to the co-movements of price and trading volume, and trading volume is more sensitive to exogenous shocks than prices.
出处
《当代经济管理》
2009年第7期83-86,共4页
Contemporary Economic Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目<基于我国房地产市场的商品房预售合同研究>(70672104)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目<基于我国证券市场的风险预算方法研究>(NCET-05-0811)
关键词
商品房市场
量价关系
格兰杰检验
VAR模型
脉冲响应函数
commercial house market
price-volume correlation
granger causality test
VAR Model
impulse response function
