对国际市场石油价格走势的初步判断

Pre-judgment on Oil Price Tendency

对未来石油价格走势作了分析和判断,认为当前较低的价格水平将维持半年至一年的时间,价格走低是石油价格泡沫破灭的必然结果,但从长期来看油价仍会上涨,列出了如市场上潜在的流动性不断积累、石油供求关系紧张的基本面未改、石油投资项目被迫搁置或延迟致石油产能扩张受限等导致油价长期上涨的主要因素;并提出了改革石油储备机制、推行燃油费改税改革、节能降耗以及完善国内成品油价格形成机制的建议。

According to analysis and judgment on future tendency,the oil price will keep trending downward in the future half or one year,which is the inevitable result caused by bubble burst of oil price.However,in the long-run,oil price will rise again,thanks to increasing accumulation of potential market liquidation,the unchangeable basic situation of tense relationship between supply and demand,blocking of oil productivity caused by hanging up or delaying oil investment projects.Suggestions on reforming oil reserves mechanism,upgrading pricing mechanism of domestic product oil,promoting fuel oil tax reform and energy saving and consumption reduction are presented.