城市燃气负荷规律性分析与预测误差评价

Regularity of City Gas Load and Its Prediction Error Evaluation

负荷预测对城市燃气供应系统的可靠性和经济运行具有重要意义。负荷预测误差由建模误差和外推误差两部分构成,其大小不仅受预测方法的影响,更取决于负荷自身的规律性和随机性特点。通过研究负荷规律性与预测误差之间的关系,基于小波分析和逐点差分法给出了负荷预测误差上下限的定量估计和评价方法,并结合实例进行了说明,分析了不同地区、不同时段燃气负荷的规律性和稳定度特点,为建立科学合理的负荷预测精度评价和方法选择标准提供了理论依据。

Load prediction is significant for stable and economical running of city gas supply system.Load prediction error which is composed of modeling error and extrapolative error can be influenced not only by prediction method but also by the regularity and randomness of gas load.Combined research of relationship between load regularity and prediction error,the method of quantitatively estimating lower or upper limit of gas load error based on wavelet analysis and step difference is proposed and applied in a real case to analyze regularity and stability of gas load in different areas and periods.This research provides theoretical foundations for the reasonable load prediction estimation and method selection.