我国养老金制度长寿风险对冲路径分析

Channels of Hedging against Longevity Risk in Chinese Pension System

聚合性长寿风险是养老金计划面临的主要威胁之一,研究对冲长寿风险的路径对于我国各种养老金制度的发展具有及其重要的现实意义。结合我国实际和对国际上通用的分散长寿风险的方法进行分析,通过资本市场对冲长寿风险即长寿风险证券化是我国可采用的唯一路径。为了推进我国长寿风险证券化,应该采取以下措施:由政府出面构建死亡率指标;改变死亡率预测方法;完善资本市场建设。

As aggregate longevity risk has become one of the main threats of pension plans, the research on how to hedge against longevity risk is vital. Considering the conditions of China and the ways of transferring longevity risk prevailing in the world, capital market solution, or securitization of longevity risk, is the sole channels that can be adopted in China. In order to push the securitization of longevity risk, several measures should be taken. Firstly, Mortality Index should be constructed by public institutions. Secondly, the method to forecast mortality is to be improved. Last but not least, the capital market in China must be perfected.