我国环境污染与经济发展空间格局分析

Spatial Patterns of Environmental Pollution and Economic Development in China

以2006年我国31个省(市、自治区)的环境和经济统计数据为基础,利用三次曲线拟合了各地区人均污染物指标与人均GDP的相关性,同时利用系统聚类分析方法,将不同省(市、自治区)按人均污染物指标和人均GDP的相关性分为5类,并通过计算各类别相关指标的空间自相关系数,揭示了不同类别中各省(市、自治区)环境污染和经济发展的空间相关性.结果表明:在空间尺度上,我国没有出现环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,经济越发达地区的环境污染越严重;在人均污染物指标和人均GDP的空间关系上,东南沿海经济较发达地区为正相关,广大中西部地区为随机分布,少数经济落后地区为负相关.

Based on economic and environmental statistical data from 31 provinces （cities or municipalities） of China in 2006, the spatial correlation between environmental pollution and economic development was studied. A cubic regression model between pollutant emission and GDP per capita was established, and the characteristic of the Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） was analyzed .The regions were divided into five types based on application of hierarchical, cluster method based on different levels of pollutant emission and GDP per capita in different regions of China's Mainland. The spatial correlation between environmental pollution and economic development in different types was also analyzed. The results showed that the characteristic of EKC did not exist on a spatial scale in China in 2006. The regions with more developed economies emitted more pollution. The spatial correlation between pollutant emissions and GDP per capita had three different types：positive correlation in southeastern regions where the economy is more developed, negative correlation in undeveloped regions, and random distribution in most of west-middle regions.