基于社会网络分析的恐怖袭击风险控制

Ways of controlling the risks of the terrorist attack through social network analysis

应用社会网络分析技术研究恐怖分子网络的脆弱性,为破坏恐怖组织提供技术建议。选择组织风险分析软件ORA (OrganizationalRisk Analyzer)工具对恐怖分子网络进行研究,采用宏矩阵对组织中的人员、知识、资源和任务实体进行建模,对该组织存在的风险和脆弱性进行量化分析,得到该组织最终的脆弱性和风险。以"东突恐怖分子网络"为背景的案例研究表明,在打击恐怖组织的实际行动中,识别并消灭恐怖组织中的核心人物是有效瓦解恐怖分子网络结构的捷径。

This paper is to present the study results on how to use social network analysis technology to analyze the vulnerability of the ter wrist attacks and possibilities to bring destructive counter-attack against the terrorist organizations. For our purpose, we have applied our computer tool of Organizational Risk Analyzer （ORA） to analyze the network of ＂East Turkistan＂ terrorists in China. The models of the relationship among its organization members, knowledge, resources and tasks entities are all represented by the meta-matrix in ORA, which helps to analyze the risks and vulnerabilities of their organizational structure from the point of view of bringing them deadly attack and destruction of their effective strength by making ourselves well-in- formed of the actual terrorist intentions and plots of their organization. In doing so, it is necessary for us to get the ORA reports to analyze the entire core force quantitatively, including their total degree centrality, their cognitive demand, their task exclusivity, and resource exclusivity, all of which are closely tied to their network structure and distribution. A case study we have done has shown that great change has taken place before and after their head, the central figure, A was killed. It was a matter of fact that, before the event, the core of the terrorist organization was strong. The situation shows that there had been existing cohesive power of the whole organization. However, when their back-born member was killed in our counter-terrorist attack, the cohesive function of the organization left over tends to get weakened, which made them more difficult to go on with their tasks. The case study we have done covers the background of the ＂East Turkistan＂ terrorist network in China, which indicates that there should be some kind of shortcuts to destroy effectively the terrorist organization by detecting the core figures in the terrorist network and annihilating them in counter-terrorist battles. Therefore, it is vital to improve the probability to control the risk of terrorist attacks by successful application of less military resources.