地震短期预测的概率方法浅议

ELEMENTARY DISCUSSION ON THE PROBABILISTIC METHOD OF SHORT TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

和天气预报相比，地震预测，特别是地震的短临预测更为困难。概率方法真实地反映了地震发生的随机性，真实地反映了人类对于地震认识的局限性，加快短期预测的概率方法研究与应用是十分必要的。概率预测是经验预测、统计预测和物理预测的综合，各类地震预测方法特别是物理预测方法的发展还很不充分，目前仍处于探索阶段。从目前我国地震预测的现状来看，应大力发展统计预测方法。地震目录可为我们提供对背景地震发生率的估计，而前兆的出现使我们可以得到地震发生率大大高于背景发生率的时段，其增益越强，时段越短，越接近于理想预测。前兆和地震之间的关系的统计检验对于概率预测起着十分重要的作用。该文提出，应按实用化的要求逐步规范各种地震预测方法。这对地震预测研究的健康发展是至关重要的。

In comparison with weather forecast,earthquake prediction,especially short term earthquake prediction is more difficult.As the probabilistic method provides the real randomness of earthquake occurrence and reflects the real limitations of human understanding of earthquakes,it is very necessary to expedite the research on and application of the probabilistic method of short term prediction.The probability prediction is a combination of empirical prediction,statistical prediction and physical prediction.There haven't been adequate developments in various earthquake prediction methods,especially physical prediction method,which is still in the exploration stage now.According to the status quo of earthquake prediction in China,major efforts should be devoted to developing the statistical prediction method.Earthquake catalogues can provide us with the estimation of the rate of background earthquake occurrence,and the occurrence of precursory phenomena can provide us with the time interval of earthquake occurrence rate which is much higher than background occurrence rate,the higher the quake occurrence rate increases,the shorter becomes the time interval,and therefore is closer to ideal prediction.The statistical inspection of the relationship between precursors and earthquakes plays a very important role in probability prediction.In this paper,the authors suggest that various earthquake prediction methods should be progressively standardized according to the stan dards of practicality,and this is the most important for developing healthily the research on earthquake prediction.