摘要
基于复杂震源系统,研究强震孕震期的阶段性划分和孕震后期非线性阶段层次的时空演化特征,以此进行强震的长中短临预报,这种非线性的统计预报方法简称层次法.本文简要介绍强震孕育的综合模式和层次法的原理及实现步骤,并应用该法对1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级强震的整个孕震过程和预报问题进行了讨论.
On the basis of the comprehensive model about complex source region mechanism dividing stage of strong earthquake preparation period and the space-time pattern of non-linear stage in latter preparation period were studied, the results is used for long-medium-short term earthquake prediction, this is a non-linear statistic prediction method, or called 'level method' In this paper, the comprehensive model of strong earthquake forming mechanism and basic principle and implement step is introduced. Then the preparation process and predicition of the Taiwan Strait Ms7.3 earthquaken on September 16, 1994 are discussed with 'level method'.
出处
《华南地震》
1998年第2期21-26,36,共7页
South China Journal of Seismology
基金
国家自然基金资助项目(49674210)
关键词
地震预报
震源
孕育模式
层次法
台湾海峡
地震
Earthquake prediction, Focal development pattern, Level Method, Taiwan strait earthquake
