气候变化对四川省盐亭县主要农作物生产潜力的影响

Influence of Climatic Change on Potential Productivity of Main Crops in Yanting County,Sichuan Province

依据盐亭县近48年来的气象观测资料,计算了水稻、玉米、小麦3种作物的光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,并将农作物生产潜力与气候要素的变化结合起来,分别探讨了气温变化对光温生产潜力的影响和降水变化对气候生产潜力的影响.结果表明,盐亭县冬春两季干旱缺水的气候条件已经成为小麦等小春作物自然生产潜力的主要限制因子,再加上从20世纪80年代开始,该县降水有减少的趋势,水分亏缺将进一步加剧.因此,水利建设是盐亭县农业发展最关键的因素之一.

According to the meteorological data in the past 48 years in Yanting county, the photosynthesis potential productivity, the light temperature potential productivity and the climate potential productivity of the rice, the corn and the wheat are caculated. And combining potential productivity of crops with climate change, the influence of temperature change on the light warm potential productivity and the influence of precipitation change on the climate potential productivity are discussed. The results show that the drought and water shortage in winter and spring is the main limiting factor of the natural production potential of vernal crop. The precipitation in Yanting County has reduced since the 1980s, water deficit would be further intensified, water conservancy construction is one of key factors of agricultural development in Yanting County.